Fed decision day guide from dot plots to exit strategy

by. Matthew Boesler

Here’s what to look for when the Federal Open Market Committee releases its policy statement at 2 p.m. today in Washington along with new economic projections. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen plans to give a press conference at 2:30 p.m.

— Sticking to zero: Yellen will probably emphasize that the Fed will keep its main interest rate close to zero for at least a year even with inflation rising toward the Fed’s 2 percent goal and the job market improving faster than officials expected, said Roberto Perli, a partner at Cornerstone Macro LP in Washington.

— The 6.3 percent unemployment rate is already at the top end of the range that most officials in March forecast for the end of this year.

— Similarly, the personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, rose 1.6 percent in the year through April, a rate most officials expected at year-end. The consumer price index, a separate inflation measure, rose last month by 0.4 percent, the biggest gain since February 2013.

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