The economy is now in its ninth year of recovery—the third longest expansion in U.S. history. But that doesn’t mean a recession is looming, says Bill Hampel, CUNA’s chief economist and chief policy officer.

“The economy is showing no sign of aging,” Hampel told CUNA Economics & Investments Conference attendees in Las Vegas. “This recovery was unusual because it was much slower than most post-war recoveries. People were very cautious. We’re limping up to a full economy, not booming through it.

“But think about what you were doing in your credit union eight or nine years ago,” he adds.

While there are some warning signs—the approach of full employment and heightened uncertainty on public policy—“we’re good for the next couple of years.”

If President Trump implements his agenda of tax cuts, increases in infrastructure spending, and immigration reform, it would stimulate the economy for the next two to three years, Hampel says.

 

continue reading »