by. Richard Barrington

After falling a little in April, mortgage rates fell further during the first four weeks of May to reach their lowest levels since last October. Is this the beginning of a trend — or one last opportunity for consumers to capture low purchase or refinance rates on mortgage loans?

Current mortgage rates are still higher than they were a year ago, but have now fallen by more than 30 basis points since 2014 began, and by more than 40 basis points since peaking last August.

Mortgage rates and Treasury bonds

Treasury bonds can be a good barometer for mortgage rate conditions. Like mortgage rates, Treasury yields represent a long-term interest rate commitment, and thus are sensitive to many of the same economic conditions. But since Treasuries are traded daily in huge volume on open markets, they can provide a little more immediate feedback about those conditions than mortgage rates.

So far in May, Treasury yields have reinforced the recent trend in mortgage rates. Through May 23, yields on 30-year Treasury bonds had fallen by 12 basis points since the end of April, while yields on 30-year mortgage rates had dropped by 19 basis points. Given that April ended with disappointing news about GDP growth in the first quarter, a slide in long-term interest rates might seem to make perfect sense — save for some lingering questions about inflation.

continue reading »