Current Expected Credit Loss, or CECL, is an important upcoming accounting requirement that requires financial institutions to attempt to predict the expected losses on loans and other debt securities over the entire life of the loan. Large retailing banks and credit unions of all sizes can benefit from an accurate CECL model as both entities provide much of the same services to their customers and members, respectively.
The two main metrics you have to consider when choosing the right CECL model should be accuracy and procyclicality. If a loss model lacks accuracy and consistency, what’s the point of spending all that time, money, and effort in a meaningless implementation? A good CECL model will be adequately equipped to better track credit losses. There is a strong correlation between the credit cycle and the economic cycle. Models that account for implied volatility better estimate the timings and severity of economic recessions and manage to do so in a timely manner.
In the webinar, “Which CECL Model Should You Use”, Dr. Joseph Breeden, Chief Scientist and COO, at Deep Future Analytics and Prescient Models LLC, talks about the various types of CECL models. He clarifies the key differences between simple “spreadsheet” models and more advanced statistical models and how they can directly benefit credit unions with improved predictability.
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