One sure way to make better decisions

One of the biggest factors in the success of your career (and life) is the ability to make good decisions.  Good decisions lead to good results for people, companies and profits. In these times of rapid change and uncertainty, it’s more important than ever to have a process for making better decisions with more predictable outcomes.

You’ll note I used the word process.  Here’s why. As humans we are not especially good at making decisions.  One reason is our susceptibility to confirmation bias.  Once we have formed a view, we embrace information that confirms that view while ignoring, or rejecting, information that doesn’t match that view. It feels counterintuitive to actively look for evidence that contradicts our beliefs.  Confirmation bias can prevent us from perceiving circumstances objectively.

You may be thinking the solution to this is to simply weigh out the pros and cons of a particular decision.   While this technique can be helpful, what if there are pros or cons you haven’t taken into consideration or accurately weighed?   Again, confirmation bias can cause errors in your decision making.

So what’s the one sure way to make better decisions?   Ask someone else to play devil’s advocate.

Have the courage to engage a devil’s advocate

A devil’s advocate is a person who advocates an opposing or unpopular cause for the sake of argument or to expose it to a thorough examination.

A common mistake is to wait for someone to speak up with an opposing view. Don’t expect people to play devil’s advocate.  Assign someone that role. By using the devil’s advocate technique you do three things:

1. You give that person permission to disagree.  His or her assigned role is to advocate for an opposing view or decision.  This helps to provide safe space and allows for more honesty and transparency.
2. You take your ego out of the decision.  Now, this isn’t easy. But by assigning the role of devil’s advocate you make arguing for a different opinion a part of the decisions making process vs. a personal challenge to you or your authority.   
3. You make it easier for everyone to get on board with the final decision.  Because dissenting views were not simply allowed, but invited in, concerns are surfaced and addressed.  If you can explain that you took the opposite point of view into consideration you reduce the risk of people questioning the validity of a decision because they believe you are missing or ignoring key information.  (FYI this is one of the biggest enemies of implementing new ideas or programs.)

Here’s an example.  At a Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting Warren Buffett invited hedge fund trader Doug Kass to participate. Kass is a critic of Buffett and his investment style, and bet against Berkshire Hathaway stock by shorting it.  Needless to say it made for a lively discussion. That was a pretty bold move. But Buffett is well aware of confirmation bias and actively guards against it.

“What the human being is best at doing is interpreting all new information so that their prior conclusions remain intact.”

— Warren Buffett

Understanding confirmation bias and using the devil’s advocate technique may be one of the top reasons for Buffett’s success.

Ground rules for using a devil’s advocate

Here are some ground rules for a successful use of the devil’s advocate technique:

1. Use the devil’s advocate technique early in the decision making process.  It should not be introduced at the end simply to try to attack an initiative you don’t agree with.  
2. The goal is not to attack ideas.  The goal is to bring to the surface issues that might otherwise be ignored and ensures that issues, once raised, are addressed and not just glossed over.
3. You don’t have to agree but you do have to listen.  Don’t immediately push back. Genuinely try to understand the other point of view.
4. Focus on the problem, not the person.  No personal attacks allowed.
5. Thank your devil’s advocate for playing their role well.  Provide safe space so that people feel they can speak up without harming careers or relationships.

Make the devil’s advocate technique a part of your decision making process.  You’ll reduce confirmation bias errors and increase the likelihood that your decision will be a good one.