83% of nation’s homes now appreciating, says Veros’ latest 12-month forecast update
VeroFORECASTSM finds that the 25 top appreciating markets are west of the Mississippi, while 24 of 25 weakest markets are east of the river
SANTA ANA, CA (October 9, 2014) — Veros Real Estate Solutions (Veros), an award-winning industry leader in enterprise risk management, collateral valuation services and predictive analytics, says that the percentage of markets expected to increase in value has remained constant, growing to 83% from last quarter’s 80%, with an accompanying decrease in last quarter’s depreciating markets from 20% to 17%. The national forecast is for +2.4% annual appreciation, a slight dip from the previous VeroFORECAST rate of +2.5% for the country overall. It is the ninth consecutive quarter in which the index has shown forecast appreciation, but the pace has continued to slow down. This insight comes from the company’s most recent VeroFORECAST, a national real estate market forecast for the 12-month period ending September 1, 2015, updated quarterly and covering1,026 counties, 352 metro areas, and 13,904 zip codes.
While previous VeroFORECAST press reports have focused solely on larger metro areas, the latest forecast released to the media includes both large and small metro areas to give a more complete picture of the U.S. housing market.
Eric Fox, Veros’ vice president of statistical and economic modeling and developer of VeroFORECAST, notes that with the inclusion of all metro sizes in the report forecast, an interesting geographic trend is evident. “The Mississippi River now has the distinction of being the unofficial dividing line of the Top 25 and the majority of the Bottom 25 markets in the country,” he says. “All of the Top 25 markets are west of the Mississippi and, with the exception of Hot Springs, Arkansas, the entire Bottom 25 group is found east of the river,” he says. “Of course, that does not mean that all of the markets in the west are appreciating, nor does it mean all those in the east are experiencing depreciation,” he adds.
In regard to the continued forecast for general market appreciation on a national level, the trend is mostly about housing supply, Fox says. “Not unexpectedly, prices will rise where supplies are low,” he says. “In the bottom forecast markets, declining population trends are a key variable for the sixth straight quarter,” Fox observes. “Populations follow jobs, and housing supplies are often slow to keep pace with demand supported by increased employment for a variety of reasons.”
Projected Twenty-Five Strongest Markets*
|2||Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX||+9.7%|
|3||San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA||+9.6%|
|4||Austin-Round Rock, TX||+9.5%|
|5||San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA||+9.4%|
|8||San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA||+8.6%|
|9||Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX||+8.5%|
|11||Grand Forks, ND-MN||+8.3%|
|13||Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA||+8.1%|
|19||Corpus Christi, TX||+7.4%|
|20||Las Vegas-Paradise, NV||+7.4%|
Projected Five Weakest Markets*
|1||Atlantic City, NJ||-3.3%|
|5||Fond Du Lac, WI||-2.3%|
|16||Norwich-New London, CT||-1.4%|
|19||Bay City, MI||-1.1%|
|20||Warner Robins, GA||-1.1%|
|25||Hot Springs, AR||-1.0%|
*Markets demonstrated are for residential real estate in metro areas (typically greater than 100,000 residents) among single-family homes in the median price tier.
Additional forecasts for U.S. markets available to the press upon request.
About Veros Real Estate Solutions
Veros Real Estate Solutions, a proven leader in enterprise risk management and collateral valuation services, uniquely combines the power of predictive technology, data analytics and industry expertise to deliver advanced automated decisioning solutions. Veros products and services are optimizing millions of profitable decisions throughout the mortgage industry, from loan origination through servicing and securitization. Veros provides solutions to control risk and increase profits including automated valuations, fraud and risk detection, portfolio analysis, forecasting, and next-generation collateral risk management platforms. Veros is headquartered in Santa Ana, Calif. For more information, please visit www.veros.com or call (866) 458-3767.
About Eric Fox, VP of Statistical and Economic Modeling:
Eric Fox received his M.S. in Statistics and B.S. in Mathematics and Economics from Purdue University, and has more than 22 years of industrial experience in statistical and econometric modeling, probabilistic life methodology development, statistical training, probabilistic design software development, and probabilistic financial/competitive analysis. Fox has published more than 20 technical papers on probabilistic and statistical methods.