Andy Burnham, the favourite to succeed Keir Starmer as prime minister, has long argued that Britain places too much of the tax burden on work and too little on wealth.
This significant shift has “considerable consequences for households, businesses, investors and the economy,” warns the CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory organisations.
The warning from deVere Group’s Nigel Green comes as investors increasingly assess what a Burnham premiership could mean for taxation, investment, property, wealth creation and Britain's competitiveness at a time when global capital has more choice than ever.
Burnham has long argued that Britain relies too heavily on taxing earnings while accumulated wealth, assets and property should shoulder a greater share of the burden.
As he moves closer to Downing Street, those views are moving from the political margins into the heart of economic debate.
Nigel Green says: “Andy Burnham’s seemingly unstoppable ascent to the top of British politics marks one of the most significant moments for investors in years.
“For the first time in a generation, Britain could soon have a prime minister whose political instinct is to look at wealth and ask whether it should be paying more.
“This matters because the answer doesn’t just affect the wealthy. It affects investment, jobs, business formation and economic growth.”
Burnham has not proposed a wealth tax, an exit tax or a specific package of measures aimed at private wealth.
Yet investors are increasingly focusing on the areas most likely to come under scrutiny if a future government sought to shift more of the tax burden away from earnings and towards assets.
“Capital gains tax, inheritance tax, property taxation, investment income and larger estates are all featuring more prominently in discussions taking place across financial markets.
“The prospect of a government placing greater emphasis on the taxation of wealth is already triggering discussions among investors, entrepreneurs and business owners about the future direction of policy.”
Questions are also being raised about whether a Burnham administration could pursue reforms to council tax, stamp duty or land taxation.
He has previously backed property tax reform and has been associated with calls to replace the current council tax system with alternative approaches linked more closely to underlying land values.
Britain enters the debate facing weak economic growth, stretched public finances and mounting pressure on government spending.
Public sector debt remains close to the size of the entire economy, while spending pressures linked to healthcare, pensions, infrastructure and defence continue to grow. Against that backdrop, future governments face difficult choices about where additional revenue can be found without undermining growth.
Nigel Green says: “Governments are right to pursue fairness. But fairness and competitiveness must coexist.
“The danger is that Britain drifts into a mindset where wealth creation becomes viewed with suspicion rather than encouragement.”
The UK remains one of the world's leading destinations for investment, supported by deep capital markets, strong institutions, legal certainty and London's role as a global financial centre.
Yet the competition for capital has intensified dramatically. Financial centres and wealth hubs across Europe, the Middle East and Asia are actively competing for entrepreneurs, investors and internationally mobile families.
Nigel Green says: “Investors around the world are watching Britain and asking a simple question: is this a country becoming more attractive to capital or less?
“Of course, the answer will determine where money flows next.”
Burnham has previously expressed support for reforming how property and wealth are taxed and has consistently argued that the balance between the taxation of labour and wealth should be reconsidered.
The impact extends beyond headline tax rates. Family business succession planning, property ownership structures, pension arrangements, investment portfolios and estate planning could all come under greater scrutiny if future governments decide wealth should contribute a larger share of overall tax receipts.
“Britain already taxes capital gains. It already taxes inheritance. It already taxes property. It already taxes investment income,” notes the deVere CEO.
“The question is now whether a Burnham government would push further. And that’s precisely why investors are paying such close attention.”
According to the latest Office for National Statistics data, privately owned wealth in Great Britain stands at approximately £13.6 trillion, equivalent to more than six times annual national income. Property wealth, pension wealth and financial assets account for the overwhelming majority of that total.
Wealth is also highly concentrated. The wealthiest fifth of households hold around 63% of Britain's total wealth, a statistic frequently cited by those arguing that accumulated assets should play a larger role in the tax system.
For households, the implications extend far beyond the ultra-wealthy. Changes to inheritance tax affect family succession planning.
Reforms to property taxation influence homeowners and landlords. Adjustments to capital gains tax alter the economics of investing and entrepreneurship. Pension tax relief and investment income could also come under greater attention if policymakers seek additional sources of revenue while protecting taxes on work.
Nigel Green says: “There’s a growing belief inside parts of politics that wealth represents an easy answer to difficult fiscal questions.
“History teaches us it’s rarely that simple.
“The more aggressively governments pursue existing wealth, the greater the risk they discourage future wealth creation.”
He argues that the implications go far beyond those typically regarded as wealthy.
“What concerns business leaders is the direction of travel.
“Businesses invest for years ahead. Investors allocate capital for decades ahead.
“If they conclude Britain is becoming less welcoming to enterprise, they’ll adjust accordingly.”
Global capital, he says, has become increasingly mobile.
“The UK’s challenge is that capital now has more freedom than at any point in history.
“A generation ago, wealth was relatively captive, but today it is very much mobile.
“It compares jurisdictions, tax systems, and governments. And it moves.”
As political momentum builds behind Burnham, the chief executive says Britain faces a defining economic test.
“Andy Burnham believes wealth should carry more of the burden. It’s a belief that has taken him a long way in politics.
“Now investors are asking what happens if it starts shaping government.”
He continues: “There’s a world of difference between saying wealth should pay more and designing policies that achieve it without damaging investment, entrepreneurship and growth.
“That is the challenge waiting on the desk of any future Prime Minister Burnham.”
He concludes: “Burnham is forcing a national conversation about who should pay more – work or wealth.
“Investors are asking whether Britain will end up paying the price.”