St. Petersburg, FL (July 16, 2026) |
Today, Velera – the nation’s premier payments CUSO and an integrated financial technology solutions provider – published the July edition of the Velera Payments Index, which includes its quarterly metrics update, featuring credit card balances, delinquencies and digital wallet activity.
While consumers have posted the largest increase in monthly purchasing activity in the past four years, and gasoline prices, though still high, have receded from their April peaks, consumer sentiment has shown signs of improvement. However, tensions with Iran have re-escalated after President Trump declared the ceasefire is off. As of July 14, the average price for a gallon of gasoline was $3.86 — 23% higher than one year ago and 31% (or $0.92) higher than when the war with Iran began on Feb. 28. Gasoline prices increased $0.08 in the last week amid reports that the Strait of Hormuz is not yet fully open. In our July 2026 edition of the Velera Payments Index, we present our quarterly metrics update, including credit card balances, delinquencies and mobile wallet activity.
For June 2026, the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment increased to 49.5, a 10% jump from May’s 44.8. The increase was identified across income, wealth and political affiliation segments. Inflation remains a top concern, with over half of consumers surveyed citing the impact of high prices on their budgets. For June, the Conference Board reported that consumer sentiment in the Consumer Confidence Index increased slightly by 0.6 points to 91.2 from a downwardly revised May result of 90.6. The slight increase in confidence is attributed to dropping oil prices, with the expectation that inflation could ease in the coming weeks.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that jobs grew by 57,000 positions in June, roughly half the WSJ poll of economists' estimate of 115,000 positions. The unemployment rate slightly dropped to 4.2% in June, or 7.1 million people. June’s job growth was noted in professional and business services, social assistance and health care. Job losses were seen in the leisure and hospitality sector in June. The June ADP jobs report, which tracks changes in U.S. private employment, reported an increase of 98,000 jobs. Notable increases were posted in the education and health services, trade, transportation and utilities, and financial activities sectors. Job reductions were noted in the natural resources and mining sector. The ADP payroll population represents more than 26 million U.S. private-sector employees.
For June, the BLS reported a 0.4% decline in inflation, lowering the 12-month Consumer Price Index (CPI) to 3.5%. The Energy index dropped by 5.7%, more than offsetting the increase that was reported in the shelter and food indices. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was unchanged in June, finishing at 2.9%. While flat at the aggregate level, decreases for the month include motor vehicle insurance, communication, apparel, medical care and used cars and trucks. Increases for June were posted in recreation, household furnishings and operations and personal care.
The ongoing disconnect of how consumers feel and how they spend is ever-present in the June updates. Year-over-year growth reached its strongest level in 2026, led by activity in the Goods Sector, influenced by Amazon Prime Day, related big-box retailer sales in late June and the economic impact of the World Cup events in North America (including activity in the prediction markets). Yet, despite this spending strength, a growing number of consumers are considered financially unhealthy. Could the late summer/early fall period bring a post-World Cup slowdown in consumer spending?
The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting concludes July 17. Federal funds target rates have remained in the 3.5% to 3.75% range. Fed members were split on the direction of interest rate adjustments in the meeting minutes, yet they voted unanimously to keep rates steady after their June meeting.
“Consumer spending remains resilient and is expected to stay strong, yet inflation-adjusted growth has been modest,” said Ryan Myers, SVP, Advisors Plus, Velera. “This mix of spending is shifting toward essential expenses such as gas, energy, housing, goods and healthcare while reducing discretionary spending on categories like travel. Consumers expect inflation to remain elevated, which drives them to make purchases ahead of anticipated increases and actively seek value and discounts. Amazon Prime Day was a great demonstration: U.S. online sales reached a record $26.4 billion, up 9.3% year over year, yet average household spending fell 9%, and most purchases were apparel and household essentials.”
Key takeaways for June include:
- June year-over-year growth in transactions and purchases were the strongest since 2022 for both credit and debit card activity. Debit purchases increased by 8.8%, with the Money Services and Goods sectors accounting for over 60% of the June growth. Credit purchases were up 7%, with the Goods sector accounting for over 40% of the increase. In June, debit and credit transactions each were up 5.4%.
- The Consumer Price Index fell more than WSJ industry analysts expected, down 0.4% in June, taking the 12-month inflation rate to 3.5%. This was the largest single-month reduction in the CPI since April 2020. Lower gasoline prices were the primary driver, offsetting increases in shelter and food for the month. Core CPI was unchanged at 2.6% for June.
- While gasoline prices have come down from their May 2026 peak of $4.50/gallon, they remain 21% (or $0.65/gallon) higher than one year ago. The resurgence of tensions with Iran may see crude oil prices increase again in the coming weeks. The increase in gasoline purchases, for both credit and debit, each accounted for 15% of the overall increase.
- Prediction markets are moving from niche products to mass-market consumer finance products. Driven primarily by World Cup contracts, the highest monthly volumes ever were reported for the various platforms in June — demonstrating that global sports can drive equal or greater liquidity than political events, which previously dominated prediction markets. Kalshi appears to be benefiting disproportionately in the U.S. due to its regulated structure, while Polymarket continues to lead globally with deep liquidity and market variety.
The full report is available for download here or can be shared as a PDF upon request. Please let us know of any questions or additional needs, or if you’d like to coordinate an interview.