The best leaders know – that they do not know!

The only true certainty in life is uncertainty. We live in a constantly changing world. Even though we have access to more information than any generation that ever lived, it’s still impossible to know what’s going to happen tomorrow with absolute certainty.

The best leaders are masters at dealing with uncertainty. A capacity to deal with uncertainty is also a baseline indicator for evaluating candidates for potential leadership opportunities.

There is a lot of powerful data available today, most notably the research of Randall White and Sandra Shullman that confirms that developing a comfort with uncertainty is one of the most valuable assets for aspiring and experienced leaders.

Viewed as a trait, uncertainty also helps a leader establish trust and credibility. To put it plainly, people tend not to trust people who seem too sure of themselves. 

Researcher Erik Douglass reports that “Leaders who were confident but relatively uncertain were viewed as more effective…”We’re more willing to follow someone who doesn’t believe––or pretend to believe they know everything about the future.

And on the flip side, over-confidence can produce disastrous outcomes. Don A. Moore wrote the following in Harvard Business Review:

“Research has shown that over-confident CEOs make overly risky decisions, often at the expense of their shareholders. Leaders who are able to come to terms with uncertainty and communicate it to employees may avoid such bad decisions.”

Now that we’ve established how important it is for a leader to be somewhat comfortable with uncertainty, there’s a sad fact we must face––we’re not generally good at it! An inability or unwillingness to face uncertainty competently and confidently is a huge problem today, especially for aspiring and emerging leaders.

Fortunately, the solution to this problem is remarkably simple. It does, however, require some courage and some discipline. I learned how to deal with uncertainty in the rough and tumble environment of the dojo. The same process applies to the business world.

#1 If you want to become more comfortable with uncertainty––you’ve got to expose yourself to it!

You simply can’t train courage and confidence without exposing yourself to risk. In the dojo we practiced endless self-defense scenarios. As soon as we were comfortable with one set of conditions, the Master changed them, usually without warning.

We took our lumps! But by exposing ourselves to the unexpected, we learned to deal with rapidly changing and unanticipated conditions quickly and effectively. We learned how to adapt, improvise and innovate.

What are you doing in your life and business to expose yourself to risk and uncertainty? Or, like too many people, are you trying to avoid it?

#2 Comfort, courage and confidence come from training and preparation. Acknowledge the fact that absolute certainty is nothing but an illusion––another powerful philosophy I learned from my Eastern Masters. Having acknowledged that fact, the way to develop a “quiet mind” in the heat of battle is to prepare for as many contingencies as possible.

Training in this way, you remove many of the variables that may otherwise have taken you by surprise. And even when conditions are not exactly what you expected, the situation may be similar enough to something you’ve trained for that you can adapt to any variation quickly.

As important as it is to become proficient in certain techniques, it’s even more important to develop a calm and centered mind. That’s the mindset you need to respond to chaos and as a leader––to be the calm in the center of the storm.

And that comes from training.

What are you doing to train yourself to respond to unexpected or rapidly changing conditions?

#3 Anticipate as many contingencies as possible and have the courage to consider the improbable, the impossible and the worst case scenario.

As I noted above, an over-confident leader can make bad decisions. Arrogance has destroyed many promising and successful leaders.

Think about what could happen––both good and bad. Plan for the most improbable conditions, prepare for the worst possible outcomes and train yourself to face the most improbable conditions with courage. What are you doing to anticipate and prepare for the worst case scenario and the least likely challenges, situations and conditions?

Finally, remember always that one of your most important roles as a leader, if not your most important role, is to develop the next generation of leaders. As Tom Peters famously said, “Leaders don’t create followers. They create more leaders!”

If you want to develop strong, competent leaders on your watch, you must expose them to challenges and risks too.You decide the level of exposure, both for your protege and for the organization, but keep in mind that to become comfortable with uncertainty, you must be exposed to it. There is no true growth without risk––especially for leaders.

Identify, manage and even develop opportunities for aspiring leaders to test their mettle under live fire. Sure, there is risk that they’ll fail once in a while. But in the long run you’ll find that your future leaders are those who will surprise you with their ingenuity, creativity and exemplary performance under pressure––

Given the chance!

There are no shortcuts. I wouldn’t want any.

You develop your full potential as a leader by embracing your most daunting challenges. There is no greater challenge than facing the unknown.