Does an increase in first-time homeownership mean trouble for the rental industry?
First-time homeownership is on the rise. According to a recent TransUnion projection, at least 8.3 million first-time homebuyers will enter the mortgage market between 2020 and 2022. That number could reach 9.2 million if economic growth exceeds expectations — a significant acceleration from the 7.6 million first-time homebuyers added in the last three-year period (2016–2018).
Number of first-time homebuyers is expected to rise in the next three years
Three-Year Date Range |
2020-2022* |
2016-2018** |
2013-2015 |
2010-2012 |
2007-2009 |
Millions of First-Time Homebuyers (Originations) |
8.31 to 9.20 |
7.64 |
6.67 |
6.32 |
6.75 |
*Projection
**Note that as 2019 has yet to conclude, we have not included it.
In a LendEDU survey, 89% of non-homeowning Millennials between the ages of 23 and 38 wish to become a homeowner at some point. Most of these aspiring, first-time buyers are renters relying on good credit scores for mortgage loan approval.