Does an increase in first-time homeownership mean trouble for the rental industry?

First-time homeownership is on the rise. According to a recent TransUnion projection, at least 8.3 million first-time homebuyers will enter the mortgage market between 2020 and 2022. That number could reach 9.2 million if economic growth exceeds expectations — a significant acceleration from the 7.6 million first-time homebuyers added in the last three-year period (2016–2018).

Number of first-time homebuyers is expected to rise in the next three years

Three-Year Date Range

2020-2022*

2016-2018**

2013-2015

2010-2012

2007-2009

Millions of First-Time Homebuyers (Originations)

8.31 to 9.20

7.64

6.67

6.32

6.75

*Projection
**Note that as 2019 has yet to conclude, we have not included it.

In a LendEDU survey, 89% of non-homeowning Millennials between the ages of 23 and 38 wish to become a homeowner at some point. Most of these aspiring, first-time buyers are renters relying on good credit scores for mortgage loan approval.

 

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