Investors increasingly expect ‘no landing’ for US economy

A growing number of investors believe the US economy is headed for a “no landing” scenario, in which inflation doesn’t reach the Fed’s 2% target, but the US economy keeps growing.

Thirty-six percent of respondents to Bank of America’s Global Fund Manager Survey, released on Tuesday, said they believe the most likely outcome for the global economy in the next 12 months is a “no landing.” This was a noted move higher from the 23% who saw the outcome a month ago and the highest level seen since June 2023, the earliest date on BofA’s graph.

Meanwhile, 54% of respondents believe a soft landing — where economic growth slows but not to the point of recession, and inflation returns to its historical average — is the most likely outcome.


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