CUNA Economics: GDP, Economic growth unlikely to continue

WASHINGTON, DC (October 27, 2022) — Credit Union National Association (CUNA) Chief Economist Mike Schenk, issued the following statement after the U.S. Commerce Department released its third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) report:

“U.S. economic growth bounced back from two consecutive quarters of decline with a solid 2.6% increase in GDP. Exports, which were a key driver of the overall results, reflected a double-digit increase. Personal consumption, the biggest part of the economy, rose at a 1.4% pace. The report also reflected solid increases in business investment and government spending.

“The rebound was widely expected. CUNA’s baseline economic forecast called for the economy to grow by 2.5% in the third quarter and the consensus estimate amongst economists was 2.3%.

“Importantly, healthy economic growth will not last. The Federal Reserve’s recent aggressive policy response to stubbornly high inflation virtually guarantees that fourth-quarter output will decelerate – perhaps significantly. The Fed’s laser-focus on bringing inflation down with big increases in the Fed’s short-term market interest rate target has greatly reduced the affordability of a wide range of products & services including homes, autos, and other big-ticket items purchased on credit. Spending and borrowing will therefore undoubtedly take a big hit in the fourth quarter. The end result will be obvious and impactful labor market dislocations.”

About Credit Union National Association (CUNA)

Credit Union National Association (CUNA) is the only national association that advocates on behalf of all of America’s credit unions, which are owned by 135 million consumer members. CUNA, along with its network of affiliated state credit union leagues, delivers unwavering advocacy, continuous professional growth and operational confidence to protect the best interests of all credit unions. For more information about CUNA, visit To find your nearest credit union, visit


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