CUNA releases May Economic Update

WASHINGTON, DC (June 1, 2022) — In the May 2022 CUNA Economic Update, Chief Economist Mike Schenk discusses the overall health of the economy, the Federal Reserve’s next steps, and the stock market.

Highlights from the most recent update include:

  • First-quarter GDP results showed a contracted economy: A “huge buildup” of inventory at the end of last year and heavy consumer spending on imported goods at the beginning of the year hurt GPD, but Schenk predicts the economy to rebound in the second quarter.
  • An active Fed will not produce a recession: An engaged Federal Reserve that’s trying to slow the economy necessarily will not cause a recession.
  • “Exogenous shocks:” Supply chain disruptions will continue and overall prices will increase by 5%, due to COVID and the war in Ukraine.

Stock market performance is not what it seems

“Since 2015, the stock market has averaged north of 10% average returns over this entire period of time. That’s a pretty decent outcome in the grand scheme of things.  Actually, as a result, that’s a bit higher than long run average increases in equities which are on average about 8% overall.”

Recession forecast: not likely

“If you forced me to put a percentage on prospects for recession, I would say, at the moment, maybe somewhere in the neighborhood of 35-40%.  We are looking at all this data on an ongoing basis in real time, adjusting our outlook based on that. But, at the moment, I’m still relatively upbeat.”

Mike Schenk is the Chief Economist for Credit Union National Association (CUNA). Schenk has been quoted by Fox Business, CNBC, Buzzfeed, and BankRate, among others. He has over 35 years of research experience and serves on the board of the Filene Research Institute, an independent, non-profit consumer and cooperative finance think tank.

Please contact Deshundra Jefferson ( to set up an interview with CUNA Chief Economist Mike Schenk.

About Credit Union National Association (CUNA)

Credit Union National Association (CUNA) is the only national association that advocates on behalf of all of America’s credit unions, which are owned by 135 million consumer members. CUNA, along with its network of affiliated state credit union leagues, delivers unwavering advocacy, continuous professional growth and operational confidence to protect the best interests of all credit unions. For more information about CUNA, visit To find your nearest credit union, visit


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