CUNA Research: GDP Decline Doesn’t Signal a Recession

WASHINGTON, DC (July 28, 2022) — Credit Union National Association (CUNA) Senior Economist Dawit Kebede, PhD, issued the following statement after the U.S. Commerce Department released its second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) report:

“Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) decreased by 0.9% for a second consecutive quarter due to significant decline in private inventories and investment in new housing.

“Personal consumption, which accounts for two-thirds of the economy, continued to increase but it slowed down relative to the first quarter. Spending on services offset the decline in goods spending. The trade deficit, which was a major reason behind the first quarter decline, improved on account of strong export activity.

“We are not in a recession just because we have two quarters of decline. Consumer spending and a strong labor market continue to be the firewall against a significant and widespread decline in economic activity. However, Federal Reserve’s resolve to fight inflation by slowing consumer demand will thin out this defense.”

About Credit Union National Association (CUNA)

Credit Union National Association (CUNA) is the only national association that advocates on behalf of all of America’s credit unions, which are owned by 135 million consumer members. CUNA, along with its network of affiliated state credit union leagues, delivers unwavering advocacy, continuous professional growth and operational confidence to protect the best interests of all credit unions. For more information about CUNA, visit To find your nearest credit union, visit


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