Fall spending predictions: Pent-up demand drives back-to-school shopping and the return of business travel

As the summer winds down and cooler temperatures prevail, get ready for a busy fall payments season. Personal consumption expenditures rose by 1% in June, as businesses reopened, and consumers activated their long-delayed travel, dining and entertainment plans. As the economic recovery continues, we are anticipating an active autumn highlighted by a supercharged back-to-school shopping season and the return of business travel. The return to the office and classroom will cause spending patterns to increase across many merchant categories and payment channels that may have been more dormant during the pandemic.

Following are our payment trends predictions for the fall season, along with some recommendations for how credit unions can meet their members’ payment needs and enhance the member experience:

3 Spending Predictions for this Fall

  1. Back-to-School Gets Back to Normal: According to a recent survey by the National Retail Federation, back-to-school spending is expected to reach an all-time high this year. Meanwhile, Deloitte predicts a 16% increase in spending, well above the typical 1-3% growth seen in most years.


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