While there has been discussion for months about the possibility of recession late this year or early next, until early July, this was far from certain. However, recent higher inflation data and monetary policy action has made the probability of recession exceed 90%. The only questions now are when it will start, how long it will last, and how severe it will be.
In this blog post, I’ll provide insights regarding what the contours of the recession and subsequent recovery might look like.
Current Economic and Financial Landscape
Even though the second quarter GDP came in at -0.9% for two straight quarters of negative GDP, we aren’t technically in a recession, yet.
The National Bureau of Economic Research lists six factors it considers when defining whether or not a recession has occurred:
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